We have previously argued that the lowest volatility quintile contains information on the inflation expectations of infrequent price-setters. We argued further that expectations are the forcing variable for the Fed — allowing us to predict the Fed’s response under forcing as long as we’re picking up the signal. Recall that a signal is a pattern that con…
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Policy Tensor to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.