Obama-Trump vs McCain-Harris Counties
The class signal
In 2024, Donald J. Trump won 480 counties that Obama had won in 2008. In contrast, Harris secured just 19 counties that McCain had secured back then. The gap between these two contains a much stronger signal of the class-partisan cleavage than that revealed by the covariates of vote change, which is the standard approach. The reason is that 2,557 or 83%…
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