Stock Market Fluctuations Are Driven by Investor Herd Behavior

FT AlphaVille linked to an interesting blog post by Nick Maggiulli on Dollars and Data that examined the long-run stock return predictability in terms of equity allocations. Nick shows that high allocations predict lower ten-year returns. Here's a replication of the main result.

The result must be taken with a pinch of salt. Is it a feature or a bug? The…