The Term Structure of Growth Risk

What is the null?

As of the March meeting, the median FOMC member reckons that real US GDP will grow at 6.5 percent in 2021. The reason that the Fed upgraded its forecast from 4.2 percent in December is threefold. First, the progress of the vaccination campaign and the attendant ‘revenge consumption’ expected of Americans. Second, the $1.9 trillion fiscal package passed …