Feb 27Liked by Policy Tensor

Very interesting read but it begs the question of what we should be doing in the foreign policy realm instead of what we are doing now. Perhaps that could be a topic for the next newsletter.

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China could prevail against us in the diplomatic struggle?

China prevailed against us diplomatically long ago.

You don't know that because our media which, of course, 76% of us distrust, have kept us in the dark about the real world.

China has far more, and far closer trade and diplomatic relationships with foreign countries than we do. It also has far more money, and a bigger, more powerful navy, and a manufacturing base... You get the picture.

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Glad the Policy Tensor has revised views in regards to Biden Admin willingness to take (or more worryingly, misunderstand) risks.

Nord Stream is only a dramatic illustration of this. More generally, the demanding Germany/EU to sacrifice their strategic autonomy, reputation/hope for financial autonomy, and global economic competitiveness. All burned down via the sanctions program.

And incomprehensibly, all with the working theory of the sanctions apparently ignoring China's profitable option to eat EU's lunch, on both ends.

China steps in in as buyer of Russian energy exports, obtaining competitive advantage over EU.

China steps in as seller of industrial supplies, making Russia a showcase market and natural stimulator of investment for the Chinese version of firms like Siemens - which produce a range of both foundational and highly integrated industrial technologies. 5-10 years from now, the businesses that spin up in China to supply the full spectrum of foundational items for Russian high end industry, with effective subsidy too, will proceed to sell their products elsewhere at a cost advantage vs the shrinking markets of their EU counterparts - who'll be simultaneously pushed out of China and US !

And there's still more bonus for China here. Just one year of war in Ukraine is already a disaster with an intensity I don't think has been seen since Iran-Iraq. It will serve as a vivid warning to East Asian partners of the US - not necessarily to refuse Washington's overtures entirely, but surely to be very aware that the history of South Vietnam was not a one-off, but an active possibility.

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I often wonder who draws up the linguistic maps of Ukraine.

I lived in Ukraine and the only reason I ever needed Ukrainian was to read the law codes. Even then, it was a running joke among the lawyers of how the statutes should best be translated into Russian, the only language that everyone actually lived and worked and thought and dreamed and spoke in. I knew lots of people who didn't speak Ukrainian. I knew nobody who didn't speak Russian.

True story - closing a PPP, to be signed by a Kiev-born businessman and a member of the Yushchenko administration. The PPP agreement was written in Ukrainian, as required by law. When reviewing the agreement, I had to explain the meanings of several Ukrainian words (in Russian) to the two signatories, neither of whom could speak what was ostensibly their national language. I never formally learned Ukrainian, and I am not Russian or Ukrainian, but I could speak Ukrainian better than either of these two, both of whom were born and raised in Kiev.

Even today, much of non-official Ukrainian twitter is is Russian.

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