5 Comments
Oct 5, 2023Liked by Policy Tensor

The Biden Administration desperately needs a foreign policy win, not to mention it needs to undermine the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a deal which proved once and for all that American bayonets are not necessary to keep or even to make peace.

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PS - regarding chain of succession. That's a very interesting issue, but for Saudis, as all monarchies in history, the contingencies for an untimely vacancy at the top are hardly overlooked.

A hypothetical "Ministry of Strategic Arms" would of course be a top-tier power center. But conceptually what is new? A member of the royal family carefully chosen to lead, with additional reshuffling per classical balance-of-power.

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Nov 9, 2023·edited Nov 9, 2023

I read my news late because it saves time.

Brilliant. Your foresight could not be timed better. And I hope you know about Sullivan's article in this month's copy of Foreign Affairs touting that the middle East is more stable than ever.

A major problem in the West is that people don't get fired anymore. Bibi should be executed for his role in bringing about October 7, Sullivan should be fired from anywhere but entry level jobs for having a juvenile understanding of everything, and a bunch of generals should have their stars ripped off their shoulders.

The fact that none of it is happening shows the West remains deeply unserious one month into this crisis.

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Oct 5, 2023·edited Oct 5, 2023

The presumed benefit here would be to undermine Saudi-Iran detente, I think.

Also wouldn't be shocked if Riyadh and Tel Aviv together negotiate outstanding terms, for endless reasons.

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There are no economic benefits Iran can offer China that Saudi Arabia cannot top: that precludes a Chinese military alliance with Iran.

An Israeli-Saudi deal breaks the back of the Palestinian effort against Israel and leaves mainstream Arab nations allied with it. The economic and defense benefits are already quite visible in ties with UAE and Morocco.

With the Palestinians turned into a side-issue, the power struggle for the Middle East looks like Iran vs every other major country there. Not a winning hand.

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