The full strategic implications of the military humiliation of the West in Ukraine have yet to be recognized. In Ukraine, a strategic decision in favor of Russia is within sight. But that is not the military humiliation. The West believed that it would crush Russia because the balance of economic power was so overwhelmingly in the West’s favor that many American senators
The only item missing is the lack of explicit mention of how US policies of the past several decades and administrations has pushed China, Iran and Russia together. This is as close to the unification of the Eurasian continent such that MacKinder must be doing quadruple axels in his grave.
This is a far graver strategic problem than a 3 front war.
At the top level, they're fighting to maintain the state of denial first of all.
There are some things you just can't take back. Israeli crimes in Gaza are now so far into that category even the CNN watchers can't ignore it. China announced its support for Palestine and condemnation of Israeli stance. Audience of a billion people. "Soft Power" like Obama once dreamed about.
As you the article points out, the Ukraine gambit was a fiasco from the start. The antics of the Zelensky + Azov / RightSector combination took it one to another level. It's really something else, to watch it in real time.
And far from over, since they're freaking out hard enough now in Paris and Berlin that they'll produce whatever bakshish Kiev wants to herd the next year's half a million and keep it going that much longer.
And US is still poking at China, eg Kinmen Island. No possible consequences in the other theaters, of course.
One of the things that got us here is our nation's absolute lack of accountability for senior management, look how you, and I'm not implying anything or knocking you here, referred to Robert McNamara et al as the "best and the brightest", I mean, "Hamlet Counts", lol, they certainly weren't the best and they weren't very bright. But since some point after WW2, the US public became obsessed with the notion that ubermensch run our government and will never acknowledge when they fail, or even when they prove themselves to be mediocrities. The same people just stay on in positions of high responsibility, messing things up even further, heck, after SECDEF, McNamara went on to run the World Bank for ten years where he may have even done more damage to humanity than he did in Vietnam...
The West has already invested so many sunk costs, not just money and materiel but propaganda and diplomatic support that they cannot be seen to lose now.
We see this every single time when the West escalates. First they deny, as this would unduly provoke Russia. Then some clamor, and American snaps his fingers, european knees hit the floor with a resounding thwack! and the latest red line is crossed. See, e.g., starting with weapons in general, then intelligence, ex-Soviet equipment, ex-Soviet aircraft, cluster munitions (a 'war crime' when Russia does it!) armored vehicles but not tanks, then tanks ("Release The Leopards!"), F-16, long-range missiles, etc..
The leak yesterday about British troops being already in Ukraine simply reflects what has long been an open secret. This will be used to pressure Scholz "See, the British are already there and WWIII hasn't broken out so get of the fence and send the army, already!"
We also hear of the Bundeswehr proposing to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine, with sheep-dipped German crews, without bothering to tell the Chancellor or anything. Again, this is an effort to pressure Scholz, who offers a couple days of token resistance before he caves. Same thing, every time.
Of course, whenever you hear that something controversial is "under consideration", that means that the decision has been made. Any consideration, debate or ratification is just a stage-managed rubber stamp.
All this is too long. Let’s summarize a little bit: how long do you expect it will take Russia to take Kiev? And in Gaza, how long will it take Israel to take Rafah? In my view Rafah will fall before May, and Russia will never take Kiev if the democrats win the election.
The confrontation with.. the Chinese Communists ended with the humiliation in Vietnam. That was AFTER the much greater humiliation in Korea. Perhaps the worst defeat in modern military history.
The conflict with Russia is absolute and inevitable: as long as Poland exist, the demonstration effect is permanent source of unstability to Russia. Either they induce regime change around or they get regime changed. For reasons I cannot understand their elite does not want a Spanish transition, and they are following the only consistent approach: total Cold War.
Sorry for being so late to comment, I am so behind on my rss feeds. But Biden was absolutely not duped by Clinton into believing Russiagate. A direct quote from the Durham Report:
".....and possibly illegal financial contribution to the Clinton campaign on behalf of a foreign entity as a precursor to a much larger donation being contemplated. And in a third, the Clinton Foundation matter, both senior FBI and Department officials placed restrictions on how those matters were to be handled such that essentially no investigative activities occurred for months leading up to the election. These examples are also markedly different from the FBI' s actions with respect to other highly significant intelligence it received from a trusted foreign source pointing to a Clinton campaign plan to vilify Trump by tying him to Vladimir Putin so as to divert attention from her own concerns relating to her use of a private email server. Unlike the FBI's opening of a full investigation of unknown members of the Trump campaign based on raw, uncorroborated information, in this separate matter involving a purported Clinton campaign plan, the FBI never opened any type of inquiry, issued any taskings, employed any analytical personnel, or produced any analytical products in connection with the information. This lack of action was despite the fact that the significance of the Clinton plan intelligence was such as to have prompted the Director ofthe CIA to brief the President, Vice President, Attorney General, Director of the FBI, and other senior government officials about its content within days of its receipt. It was also of enough importance for the CIA to send a formal written referral memorandum to Director Corney and the Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division, Peter Strzok, for their consideration and action. 25 The investigative referral provided examples of information the Crossfire Hurricane fusion cell had "gleaned to date."26 The Crossfire Hurricane Investigation Within days after opening Crossfire Hurricane, the FBI opened full investigations on four members of the Trump campaign team: George Papadopoulos, Carter Page, Paul Manafort, and Michael Flynn. 27 No defensive briefing was provided to Trump or anyone in the campaign concerning the information received from Australia that suggested there might be some type of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, either prior to or after these investigations were opened. Instead, the FBI began working on requests for the use of FISA authorities against Page and Papadopoulos. The effort as related to Papadopoulos proved..."
The US has the least need for African minerals. Ditto Russia.
Europe and China, however, do need the access as does Japan.
So the most likely scenario is the US - rather than building up Western Europe and Japan as was done post WW2, will instead break them down as a substitute for the past economic feudalism over the entire world.
That's why Mercouris and Hudson are almost certainly right that urban Russians are going to have a higher standard of living than Western Europeans, or Japanese, in less than 10 years. That's what happens when an economy is unleashed from Western financial feudalism even as Western Europe and JApan get the feudalism burden, just on them, that used to be shared by the whole world.
Are you aware of the Western response to South Africa's position on Israel and Ukraine. If not, please note that there's currently a Congressional Bill to reassess the USA's relation with South Africa. It's another silly idea considering the hundreds of U.S. businesses operating here, and us being the gateway to Africa, things that far exceed the value of our AGOA trade (which is also being weaponised). I began researching it and got twisted as I discovered the think tanks, NGOs and billionaires attempting to influence our forthcoming elections in May. It's like a conspiracy movie, but unfortunately real - https://www.mikehampton.co.uk/p/who-controls-south-africa-part-1-brenthurst
But they say their figures 'represent only a partial account and do not reflect the full extent of the casualties. The actual death toll is likely significantly higher.' Good site. Brave, too.
Avoiding humiliation in individual battles isn't the goal; the goal is to win the war. Crécy, Poitiers, Harfleur, Agincourt were all horrible humiliations for the French, but they won the war - eventually.
And Russia's turning a third of its national economy over to the production of the most basic weapons doesn't strike me as a very sustainable long-term strategy. Russia is only still at the races in Ukraine because they're prepared to accept eye-wateringly high numbers of casualties. They've already lost three times as many troops in the Ukraine as the US lost in Korea and Vietnam combined. I really don't see how this is a humiliation for the West, so far at least.
Excellent writeup.
The only item missing is the lack of explicit mention of how US policies of the past several decades and administrations has pushed China, Iran and Russia together. This is as close to the unification of the Eurasian continent such that MacKinder must be doing quadruple axels in his grave.
This is a far graver strategic problem than a 3 front war.
At the top level, they're fighting to maintain the state of denial first of all.
There are some things you just can't take back. Israeli crimes in Gaza are now so far into that category even the CNN watchers can't ignore it. China announced its support for Palestine and condemnation of Israeli stance. Audience of a billion people. "Soft Power" like Obama once dreamed about.
As you the article points out, the Ukraine gambit was a fiasco from the start. The antics of the Zelensky + Azov / RightSector combination took it one to another level. It's really something else, to watch it in real time.
And far from over, since they're freaking out hard enough now in Paris and Berlin that they'll produce whatever bakshish Kiev wants to herd the next year's half a million and keep it going that much longer.
And US is still poking at China, eg Kinmen Island. No possible consequences in the other theaters, of course.
/& the Gazans are sure doing some bleeding.
Nicely constructed wind-up in this piece.
One of the things that got us here is our nation's absolute lack of accountability for senior management, look how you, and I'm not implying anything or knocking you here, referred to Robert McNamara et al as the "best and the brightest", I mean, "Hamlet Counts", lol, they certainly weren't the best and they weren't very bright. But since some point after WW2, the US public became obsessed with the notion that ubermensch run our government and will never acknowledge when they fail, or even when they prove themselves to be mediocrities. The same people just stay on in positions of high responsibility, messing things up even further, heck, after SECDEF, McNamara went on to run the World Bank for ten years where he may have even done more damage to humanity than he did in Vietnam...
The West has already invested so many sunk costs, not just money and materiel but propaganda and diplomatic support that they cannot be seen to lose now.
We see this every single time when the West escalates. First they deny, as this would unduly provoke Russia. Then some clamor, and American snaps his fingers, european knees hit the floor with a resounding thwack! and the latest red line is crossed. See, e.g., starting with weapons in general, then intelligence, ex-Soviet equipment, ex-Soviet aircraft, cluster munitions (a 'war crime' when Russia does it!) armored vehicles but not tanks, then tanks ("Release The Leopards!"), F-16, long-range missiles, etc..
The leak yesterday about British troops being already in Ukraine simply reflects what has long been an open secret. This will be used to pressure Scholz "See, the British are already there and WWIII hasn't broken out so get of the fence and send the army, already!"
We also hear of the Bundeswehr proposing to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine, with sheep-dipped German crews, without bothering to tell the Chancellor or anything. Again, this is an effort to pressure Scholz, who offers a couple days of token resistance before he caves. Same thing, every time.
Of course, whenever you hear that something controversial is "under consideration", that means that the decision has been made. Any consideration, debate or ratification is just a stage-managed rubber stamp.
All this is too long. Let’s summarize a little bit: how long do you expect it will take Russia to take Kiev? And in Gaza, how long will it take Israel to take Rafah? In my view Rafah will fall before May, and Russia will never take Kiev if the democrats win the election.
The confrontation with.. the Chinese Communists ended with the humiliation in Vietnam. That was AFTER the much greater humiliation in Korea. Perhaps the worst defeat in modern military history.
The conflict with Russia is absolute and inevitable: as long as Poland exist, the demonstration effect is permanent source of unstability to Russia. Either they induce regime change around or they get regime changed. For reasons I cannot understand their elite does not want a Spanish transition, and they are following the only consistent approach: total Cold War.
Sorry for being so late to comment, I am so behind on my rss feeds. But Biden was absolutely not duped by Clinton into believing Russiagate. A direct quote from the Durham Report:
".....and possibly illegal financial contribution to the Clinton campaign on behalf of a foreign entity as a precursor to a much larger donation being contemplated. And in a third, the Clinton Foundation matter, both senior FBI and Department officials placed restrictions on how those matters were to be handled such that essentially no investigative activities occurred for months leading up to the election. These examples are also markedly different from the FBI' s actions with respect to other highly significant intelligence it received from a trusted foreign source pointing to a Clinton campaign plan to vilify Trump by tying him to Vladimir Putin so as to divert attention from her own concerns relating to her use of a private email server. Unlike the FBI's opening of a full investigation of unknown members of the Trump campaign based on raw, uncorroborated information, in this separate matter involving a purported Clinton campaign plan, the FBI never opened any type of inquiry, issued any taskings, employed any analytical personnel, or produced any analytical products in connection with the information. This lack of action was despite the fact that the significance of the Clinton plan intelligence was such as to have prompted the Director ofthe CIA to brief the President, Vice President, Attorney General, Director of the FBI, and other senior government officials about its content within days of its receipt. It was also of enough importance for the CIA to send a formal written referral memorandum to Director Corney and the Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division, Peter Strzok, for their consideration and action. 25 The investigative referral provided examples of information the Crossfire Hurricane fusion cell had "gleaned to date."26 The Crossfire Hurricane Investigation Within days after opening Crossfire Hurricane, the FBI opened full investigations on four members of the Trump campaign team: George Papadopoulos, Carter Page, Paul Manafort, and Michael Flynn. 27 No defensive briefing was provided to Trump or anyone in the campaign concerning the information received from Australia that suggested there might be some type of collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, either prior to or after these investigations were opened. Instead, the FBI began working on requests for the use of FISA authorities against Page and Papadopoulos. The effort as related to Papadopoulos proved..."
Yes and no.
The US has the least need for African minerals. Ditto Russia.
Europe and China, however, do need the access as does Japan.
So the most likely scenario is the US - rather than building up Western Europe and Japan as was done post WW2, will instead break them down as a substitute for the past economic feudalism over the entire world.
That's why Mercouris and Hudson are almost certainly right that urban Russians are going to have a higher standard of living than Western Europeans, or Japanese, in less than 10 years. That's what happens when an economy is unleashed from Western financial feudalism even as Western Europe and JApan get the feudalism burden, just on them, that used to be shared by the whole world.
Are you aware of the Western response to South Africa's position on Israel and Ukraine. If not, please note that there's currently a Congressional Bill to reassess the USA's relation with South Africa. It's another silly idea considering the hundreds of U.S. businesses operating here, and us being the gateway to Africa, things that far exceed the value of our AGOA trade (which is also being weaponised). I began researching it and got twisted as I discovered the think tanks, NGOs and billionaires attempting to influence our forthcoming elections in May. It's like a conspiracy movie, but unfortunately real - https://www.mikehampton.co.uk/p/who-controls-south-africa-part-1-brenthurst
Additionally, the opposition were invited to the Munich 'Security Conference' - https://www.mikehampton.co.uk/p/fake-munich-security-conference-2024-emma-powell
But they say their figures 'represent only a partial account and do not reflect the full extent of the casualties. The actual death toll is likely significantly higher.' Good site. Brave, too.
You mistake a series of unsupported assertions for an argument.
Avoiding humiliation in individual battles isn't the goal; the goal is to win the war. Crécy, Poitiers, Harfleur, Agincourt were all horrible humiliations for the French, but they won the war - eventually.
And Russia's turning a third of its national economy over to the production of the most basic weapons doesn't strike me as a very sustainable long-term strategy. Russia is only still at the races in Ukraine because they're prepared to accept eye-wateringly high numbers of casualties. They've already lost three times as many troops in the Ukraine as the US lost in Korea and Vietnam combined. I really don't see how this is a humiliation for the West, so far at least.
Did you deactivate your twitter (aka X) account? ... or are they shadowbanning you?