Odd to me how everyone at the same time believes: 1) we have no good theory of inflation & 2) we can confidently forecast inflation over the next year.
My guess is inflation will retain it's upward pressure as housing costs catch up to market-based asking rents (very wide divergence there has been putting downward pressure on inflation figures)
I was under the impression that one reason for excluding certain items from CPI was their volatility. Do the various CPI formulations have similar long-term trends, but different volatilites (in layman's terms).
Odd to me how everyone at the same time believes: 1) we have no good theory of inflation & 2) we can confidently forecast inflation over the next year.
My guess is inflation will retain it's upward pressure as housing costs catch up to market-based asking rents (very wide divergence there has been putting downward pressure on inflation figures)
I was under the impression that one reason for excluding certain items from CPI was their volatility. Do the various CPI formulations have similar long-term trends, but different volatilites (in layman's terms).