I encourage you to write a post defending your ideological commitments on Israel.
Including substantiating the ‘genocide’ claim. I have not seen an accuser properly establish the required specific intent (dolus specialis) or substantiality of harm.
You also touch on ‘consensus’ and elites. Back that up, too.
What seems interesting to me is the breakdown of the pro-Israel consensus. Never seen anything like it. This became manifest during Mumdani’s campaign, when even large fractions of NY Jews supported Mamdani, incl rabbis and esp young Jews. The loudest critics of Israel I know are all Jews.
33 percent is substantial, but it’s still much smaller than the other 67 percent. I’d suggest you reach out beyond your circle of Jewish friends if they all support Jewish Voice For “Peace” and the like.
He asked for your opinion, not to fob it off to experts (who’s claims have been healthily challenged)
Seriously, as an analyst, how can a military response to a house to house murder spree of 1,200 of a country’s citizens, a culmination of a government’s stated desire for the last *40 years* to kill you and your countrymen, which is a continuation of threats stretching back 75 years, literally since the founding of the state, be called “genocide” with a straight face?
I read it as a permission structure to forget about how six million Jews died in the Holocaust, to be released from considering how Jews might view being constantly threatened in their own country. “It turns out Jews are the real Nazis” has been trotted out for decades, first by the Soviets, then by Third World liberationists. It was even trotted out, against Israel, immediately after Hamas’ genocidal act! But if you truly feel the counteroffensive against Hamas is “genocide” (I see a lot of damage and casualties in a war zone…because it is a war), then make *your* case, not this phony NGO logrolling.
I think Bibi and his government insulted the six million Jews who were murdered by the Germans at midcentury. I hate them for destroying their claim to it by committing a genocide of their own. I was asked about the correctness of the usage, so I pointed to Israeli scholars of the Holocaust. I don’t understand what other evidence I could offer that would be better.
Holocaust equivalence is braindead. The operational, bureaucratic, and intentional structures differ categorically.
The Holocaust involved explicit, documented state policy of total annihilation.
If you actually cared you would grapple with the asymmetric warfare context and Hamas’s embedding strategy. And warnings before strikes, humanitarian corridors (however inadequate), and aid flow (however insufficient).
They do not differ categorically. Both Nazi Germany and modern Israel wanted to be rid of an ethno-religious group, through ethnic cleansing and mass murder. The difference is that one is in the past so the death toll reached its stopping point, and was allowed to progress further in that process; the other is so far partway through and still increasing the body count. Note that Israel has been deliberately starving a population of 2 million plus, in addition to bombing them and destroying all infrastructure. The institutional organization of the killing and its method is irrelevant to the fundamental categorization. This is a textbook case of genocide. Furthermore, it is done openly, with Israeli MK's cheering it on.
You should also be aware that half my family, including my father when he was a teenager, were shipped off to concentration camps by the Nazis. I do not take such comparisons lightly. One thing I was taught is not to bullsh#t when it comes to this, and call crimes of this type out for what they are. It isn't hard to recognize, any child can see it. It's hard to express the level of my outrage. Israelis and their diminishing number of US supporters are unfortunately very heavily in denial here - (and it was the same with the previous historical analogs).
I know you're not ready to process this, but the country of Israel was founded on ethnic cleansing from day one, and this necessitated a substantial rewriting of history between here and there. This has produced a twisted and often fraudulent self narrative, exploited by demagogues like Netanyahu (and he's not even the worst of the lot). Besides that, the past few decades are a long long way from 1967 or 1973, as the balance of power vs the country's neighbors shifted grossly to Israel's favor, and therefore the responsibility is now squarely on the Israelis when it comes to the endless series of human rights violations. The proclaimed justifications of extraordinary danger justifying carpet bombing of civilian areas, specially focusing on hospitals, and on and on - those claims are simply a fraud. Full stop. There is no excuse for what Israel has been doing in the past 2 years. It's simply not how human beings behave. What you hope to accomplish trying to justify this I cannot possibly imagine- you're going to deeply regret in your soul it someday.
This is a grab bag of grievances and false equivalences. And I don’t know what you think I’m “justifying.”
I’m asking for coherent criteria for what constitutes a genocide and proof that Israel meets those criteria.
Israel's actions in Gaza do not meet the strict legal definition of genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention, primarily because the required specific intent (dolus specialis) to destroy the Palestinian group as such cannot be established. Intl law demands the "only reasonable inference" test, i.e., no plausible alternative explanation for the conduct. Here, Hamas's documented use of human shields, embedding in civilian infrastructure, and hospitals (violating Geneva Conventions IV Articles 19 & 28, and Additional Protocol I Article 51(7)) provides such alternatives.
Genocide also demands intent to destroy the protected group in whole or in part, where "in part" requires substantiality threatening the group's survival. The Gaza Health Ministry reports approximately 71,400 deaths (including combatants, civilians, and roughly 13,000 expected natural deaths over two years), equating to just 3.2% of Gaza's pre-war population. This falls far short of adjudicated genocides: Rwanda saw 80% of Tutsis killed in 100 days (~800,000 deaths), while Srebrenica involved 20-30% of Bosnian Muslims in the enclave (targeting all men and boys to prevent reproduction). As clarified in the ICJ's Bosnia v. Serbia ruling (para. 373) and ICTY cases like Krstić and Tolimir, such limited scale and duration do not satisfy the substantiality threshold for genocidal intent.
It's not complicated, there's essentially one phenomenon. Modern Israel claims the land, wants it without the Arab population, and is willing to kill them - at scale - if they refuse to leave. You know it, I know it, every 5 year old in Brazil or India or Thailand or Nigeria knows it, because they can see it every day live. Textbook.
Yet to be convinced that Trump admin can coherently organize policy around strategic logic, however sound it may be in theory. Specifically, I think they lack the discipline and restraint that would be required to execute a hemispheric strategy.
They're running with incremental but very aggressive actions in quick succession, because they think they're getting away with it. This is true domestically too, as ICE emerges as an organ of internal repression, perfectly in the mold of classic fascism. In some sense they really are getting away with it, on other ways they'll lose Asia that much faster by burning down what remains of their trust and reputation outside of the US itself. China hitting Japan pretty hard with sanctions now - and what's anyone gonna say? Rules based order & free movement of goods and capital? There was a time the US-supported dictatorships could make the argument of being the lesser of two evils. That time is fully over. At the same time, the US is killing off any middle ground (ie neutrality). That would leave one option that everyone can see - an anti-US coalition. I would suggest that the US will be more successful in killing off the viability of the neutral position, than stopping a coalition forming against it.
I think we're looking at a near term of more desperate intimidation gambits, which will result in more and more conflict.
Good analysis, but "accommodating China" seems to imply they accept Chinese's rise passively, almost peacefully, rather than how the British Empire "accommodated" the rise of Germany and Russia, and then decolonization, through arson.
The ‘genocide’; editorializing, not analyzing. Your Israel hobby horse undermines otherwise serious work.
I think it is of great significance for multiple reasons.
I encourage you to write a post defending your ideological commitments on Israel.
Including substantiating the ‘genocide’ claim. I have not seen an accuser properly establish the required specific intent (dolus specialis) or substantiality of harm.
You also touch on ‘consensus’ and elites. Back that up, too.
I like your work. But you slot Israel in quite gratuitously. It would interest me to learn more about what you think, and why.
Plenty of serious scholars have made the case, including Israeli scholars. See Omer Bartov, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/opinion/israel-gaza-holocaust-genocide-palestinians.html. See also https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/leading-genocide-scholars-organization-says-israel-is-committing-genocide-in-gaza
What seems interesting to me is the breakdown of the pro-Israel consensus. Never seen anything like it. This became manifest during Mumdani’s campaign, when even large fractions of NY Jews supported Mamdani, incl rabbis and esp young Jews. The loudest critics of Israel I know are all Jews.
I live in New York, which is the center of Jewish life outside Israel. It really is a great departure.
33 percent is substantial, but it’s still much smaller than the other 67 percent. I’d suggest you reach out beyond your circle of Jewish friends if they all support Jewish Voice For “Peace” and the like.
He asked for your opinion, not to fob it off to experts (who’s claims have been healthily challenged)
Seriously, as an analyst, how can a military response to a house to house murder spree of 1,200 of a country’s citizens, a culmination of a government’s stated desire for the last *40 years* to kill you and your countrymen, which is a continuation of threats stretching back 75 years, literally since the founding of the state, be called “genocide” with a straight face?
I read it as a permission structure to forget about how six million Jews died in the Holocaust, to be released from considering how Jews might view being constantly threatened in their own country. “It turns out Jews are the real Nazis” has been trotted out for decades, first by the Soviets, then by Third World liberationists. It was even trotted out, against Israel, immediately after Hamas’ genocidal act! But if you truly feel the counteroffensive against Hamas is “genocide” (I see a lot of damage and casualties in a war zone…because it is a war), then make *your* case, not this phony NGO logrolling.
I think Bibi and his government insulted the six million Jews who were murdered by the Germans at midcentury. I hate them for destroying their claim to it by committing a genocide of their own. I was asked about the correctness of the usage, so I pointed to Israeli scholars of the Holocaust. I don’t understand what other evidence I could offer that would be better.
block nazis and move on
lol
It's a fact. If you deny it you're no better than Holocaust deniers.
Holocaust equivalence is braindead. The operational, bureaucratic, and intentional structures differ categorically.
The Holocaust involved explicit, documented state policy of total annihilation.
If you actually cared you would grapple with the asymmetric warfare context and Hamas’s embedding strategy. And warnings before strikes, humanitarian corridors (however inadequate), and aid flow (however insufficient).
They do not differ categorically. Both Nazi Germany and modern Israel wanted to be rid of an ethno-religious group, through ethnic cleansing and mass murder. The difference is that one is in the past so the death toll reached its stopping point, and was allowed to progress further in that process; the other is so far partway through and still increasing the body count. Note that Israel has been deliberately starving a population of 2 million plus, in addition to bombing them and destroying all infrastructure. The institutional organization of the killing and its method is irrelevant to the fundamental categorization. This is a textbook case of genocide. Furthermore, it is done openly, with Israeli MK's cheering it on.
You should also be aware that half my family, including my father when he was a teenager, were shipped off to concentration camps by the Nazis. I do not take such comparisons lightly. One thing I was taught is not to bullsh#t when it comes to this, and call crimes of this type out for what they are. It isn't hard to recognize, any child can see it. It's hard to express the level of my outrage. Israelis and their diminishing number of US supporters are unfortunately very heavily in denial here - (and it was the same with the previous historical analogs).
I know you're not ready to process this, but the country of Israel was founded on ethnic cleansing from day one, and this necessitated a substantial rewriting of history between here and there. This has produced a twisted and often fraudulent self narrative, exploited by demagogues like Netanyahu (and he's not even the worst of the lot). Besides that, the past few decades are a long long way from 1967 or 1973, as the balance of power vs the country's neighbors shifted grossly to Israel's favor, and therefore the responsibility is now squarely on the Israelis when it comes to the endless series of human rights violations. The proclaimed justifications of extraordinary danger justifying carpet bombing of civilian areas, specially focusing on hospitals, and on and on - those claims are simply a fraud. Full stop. There is no excuse for what Israel has been doing in the past 2 years. It's simply not how human beings behave. What you hope to accomplish trying to justify this I cannot possibly imagine- you're going to deeply regret in your soul it someday.
This is a grab bag of grievances and false equivalences. And I don’t know what you think I’m “justifying.”
I’m asking for coherent criteria for what constitutes a genocide and proof that Israel meets those criteria.
Israel's actions in Gaza do not meet the strict legal definition of genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention, primarily because the required specific intent (dolus specialis) to destroy the Palestinian group as such cannot be established. Intl law demands the "only reasonable inference" test, i.e., no plausible alternative explanation for the conduct. Here, Hamas's documented use of human shields, embedding in civilian infrastructure, and hospitals (violating Geneva Conventions IV Articles 19 & 28, and Additional Protocol I Article 51(7)) provides such alternatives.
Genocide also demands intent to destroy the protected group in whole or in part, where "in part" requires substantiality threatening the group's survival. The Gaza Health Ministry reports approximately 71,400 deaths (including combatants, civilians, and roughly 13,000 expected natural deaths over two years), equating to just 3.2% of Gaza's pre-war population. This falls far short of adjudicated genocides: Rwanda saw 80% of Tutsis killed in 100 days (~800,000 deaths), while Srebrenica involved 20-30% of Bosnian Muslims in the enclave (targeting all men and boys to prevent reproduction). As clarified in the ICJ's Bosnia v. Serbia ruling (para. 373) and ICTY cases like Krstić and Tolimir, such limited scale and duration do not satisfy the substantiality threshold for genocidal intent.
It’s not a textbook example.
It's not complicated, there's essentially one phenomenon. Modern Israel claims the land, wants it without the Arab population, and is willing to kill them - at scale - if they refuse to leave. You know it, I know it, every 5 year old in Brazil or India or Thailand or Nigeria knows it, because they can see it every day live. Textbook.
You didn’t engage with anything I said. Your claims are embarrassingly spurious—like 5-years old spurious.
Antizionists aren’t sending their best with Pxx. Thank goodness.
Yet to be convinced that Trump admin can coherently organize policy around strategic logic, however sound it may be in theory. Specifically, I think they lack the discipline and restraint that would be required to execute a hemispheric strategy.
They're running with incremental but very aggressive actions in quick succession, because they think they're getting away with it. This is true domestically too, as ICE emerges as an organ of internal repression, perfectly in the mold of classic fascism. In some sense they really are getting away with it, on other ways they'll lose Asia that much faster by burning down what remains of their trust and reputation outside of the US itself. China hitting Japan pretty hard with sanctions now - and what's anyone gonna say? Rules based order & free movement of goods and capital? There was a time the US-supported dictatorships could make the argument of being the lesser of two evils. That time is fully over. At the same time, the US is killing off any middle ground (ie neutrality). That would leave one option that everyone can see - an anti-US coalition. I would suggest that the US will be more successful in killing off the viability of the neutral position, than stopping a coalition forming against it.
I think we're looking at a near term of more desperate intimidation gambits, which will result in more and more conflict.
right on cue: https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2010831284621262933
It'll end in another Taco of course, but this is why nobody can trust them
Denmark, and the rest of europe by extension, have no priority other than the War On Russia. Specifically, getting Americans to fight Russia for them.
They'll gladly sacrifice Greenland if that will get the Americans to go to war for them.
Very good analysis!
Good analysis, but "accommodating China" seems to imply they accept Chinese's rise passively, almost peacefully, rather than how the British Empire "accommodated" the rise of Germany and Russia, and then decolonization, through arson.