* Rapid acceleration in US pulling levers to demonstrate commitment to global leadership. It would seem the soon we'll be at the point where there is no choice but to follow through 'imposing consequences' on China. I.e. actual hard 'decoupling' - containing it to cherry picked goods sectors unrealistic because both sides have a choice. A 'warning' option may be available by having the inner allies (EU/UK/CA/AU) do it first, as a demonstration of their confidence, but not clear if US would waste the surprise factor by doing this
* The world is only just starting to digest the possible reality of serious economic blows between a US-EU-UK-CA-AU-maybeJP bloc and a China-Russia-Pak-Iran-centralAsia bloc. It has the potential to drag out for 5-10 years and quickly devastate lower income countries. Arrangements that allow 'ROW' parties to ride out the storm would have value
* Turkey's example might also become less rare: Aggressively playing all sides, repeatedly renegotiating what partners in various directions see as 'expectations'
* Possible Israel-Saudi-UAE bloc makes things interesting
"We don’t know for certain whether Russian neutrality in Sino-US relations — in exchange for ceding Russian influence in eastern Ukraine — was ever on the table."
In what world does diplomacy result in Russia giving up two things and gaining nothing?
The problem with this calculus might seem to be that China would come, bearing its bullying debt-diplomacy, appearing suddenly on India's very southern doorstep, Sri Lanka, which is now an economic mess.
* Without a doubt, India becomes pivotal
* Rapid acceleration in US pulling levers to demonstrate commitment to global leadership. It would seem the soon we'll be at the point where there is no choice but to follow through 'imposing consequences' on China. I.e. actual hard 'decoupling' - containing it to cherry picked goods sectors unrealistic because both sides have a choice. A 'warning' option may be available by having the inner allies (EU/UK/CA/AU) do it first, as a demonstration of their confidence, but not clear if US would waste the surprise factor by doing this
* The world is only just starting to digest the possible reality of serious economic blows between a US-EU-UK-CA-AU-maybeJP bloc and a China-Russia-Pak-Iran-centralAsia bloc. It has the potential to drag out for 5-10 years and quickly devastate lower income countries. Arrangements that allow 'ROW' parties to ride out the storm would have value
* Turkey's example might also become less rare: Aggressively playing all sides, repeatedly renegotiating what partners in various directions see as 'expectations'
* Possible Israel-Saudi-UAE bloc makes things interesting
Non-alignment is unnecessary. India is not just a pivot state, but a heavyweight pivot state.
Switching allegiance to the Eurasian bloc will result in such a massive shift in world power that will itself mitigate the risks of the move.
"Quad Switch: How India Can Permanently Alter The Balance Of World Power (While Also Ensuring Its Own Best Interests)": https://bit.ly/2RyCnDh
"Indians Don't Understand History": https://bit.ly/3K7EXGY
"We don’t know for certain whether Russian neutrality in Sino-US relations — in exchange for ceding Russian influence in eastern Ukraine — was ever on the table."
In what world does diplomacy result in Russia giving up two things and gaining nothing?
The problem with this calculus might seem to be that China would come, bearing its bullying debt-diplomacy, appearing suddenly on India's very southern doorstep, Sri Lanka, which is now an economic mess.
good article. your understanding is great
Good article.