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Before you argue the F-16 work is wasted please read Noah Smith’s Arsenal of Democracy note. My personal view is the green tech spending is a hobby.

On another topic I am always a bit mystified that interest payments by government is thought to somehow disappear. It actually is someone’s income. There are obvious distribution issues but what gets paid to domestic households isn’t lost

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May 6Edited

A trend of rearmament and subsidies for re-shoring seem like a pretty safe bet now. Further forceful attempts to compel Western allies (perhaps excluding the US itself) to reduce trade with China are likely also, and this will have price pressures going thru US trade partners. So what's the rationale for predicting relief of inflationary pressure, which would be needed to reduce rates?

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I love 'folksy ‘balance your books’ Swabian ideology'! About 14% of the US population claims German ancestry (and that's just the ones who knew and could be bothered to answer the Census question) so maybe that has something to do with it. I'm not sure what our excuse would be in the UK for our own 'Swabian' leanings in public finance.

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"If it has to, the United States can bear an interest rate burden many times more than the CBO’s projection”.

The burden grow much heavier next year, after the US loses its wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and native currency trade settlements simultaneously reduce the need for dollar reserves.

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