I am unclear about your assessment of the SMO to date.
Are you assuming that Ukraine is currently faring quite well against Russia?
As far as I can tell, Ukraine is faring disastrously. The latest 'offensive,' over open, unoccupied country, cost them 6,000 casualties, 90% from artillery, at a near-zero cost to Russia.
If my assumption is correct, Ukraine's military is one more victory away from defeat–a fact which Putin must know very well.
He also knows that the temperature in the Carpathians yesterday was three degrees below freezing and snow was falling fast. And that 90% of Europe's gas reserves are unrecoverable without the help of–you guessed it–Russian gas.
The signal-to-noise ratio on war reporting is very low because of Western information dominance. So, I take everything with a lot of salt. I'm expecting either a counter offensive in the south by Russia, or general mobilization. If the former happens, you'd be closer to the mark. If the latter, Chinese concerns would be vindicated. Either way, this is very far from over.
I'm not sure Russia can mount a strong counter offensive. Doesn't this contradict your observation that Russia doesn't have enough troops? They seem to have no artillery advantage due to himmars not enough infantry and probably not enough good infantry support for their tanks. If they launch a counterattack it will peter out.
On the other hand Russia could easily prove very hard to dislodge from Ukraine so the war is likely to drag on for a long time or even stalemate completely.
I do not agree with you that Russia can survive as an autarky. Last time they functioned as one they had captive markets in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and a population of 300 million. Auto production is down 90%. Airline industry is collapsing do to lack of spare parts. 70% of semiconductors used in military weapons came from the US.
I hear people in the west talking about tactical nukes, or a small scale nuclear exchange, which is of course ludicrous. If anyone launches any type of nuclear weapon, it will rapidly spiral out of control, and end life on earth, or at least life as we know it.
The west needs to GTFO of everyone else's affairs. Period.
"Putin has already deployed his gas weapon to tremendous effect". Putin and Russia has done nothing of sorts. All the economic pain endured by the world now, and especially in Europe is directly caused by the sanctions imposed by EU and US on Russian economy. And the Russian grain and fertilizer might not be sanctioned, but if Russia tries to export said grain and fertilizer outside EU/US, then the ships and insurance companies are sanctions/ forbidden of such commerce.
> As a show of force, Putin massed forces on the border. According to Kyiv, Moscow had massed some 100,000 troops on the border. The divisions were soon ordered back, however, for reasons that are not entirely clear — perhaps because Biden agreed to meet with Putin.
This account makes it sound like "Putin" just decided to make a show of force and then changed his mind. At the time there were NATO fleet exercises in Black Sea, in coordination with the massing of Ukrainian units at the borders of the breakaway Donbass provinces.
The show of force came after legislation was passed in Ukraine in early 2021 to retake control of Crimea and Donbas by any means followed by mobilization of Ukrainian Army on the eastern front.... Russian mobilization was an effect of Ukrainian actions.
I think your analysis makes a lot of great points, but as a student of the Russian economy and military for over 50 years, I disagree with your argument that the Russian economy can withhold its oil from global markets and continue to function or declare a national mobilization and deliver an effective military force to the Ukraine without massive internal political and economic repercussions. This war has effected a global sea change in the perception of risk in all commercial relations with Russia (and derivatively with China), regardless of any change in US policy or the outcome of the war. The Russian elite like to boast about the superior ability of Russians to endure hardship versus their softer peers in the West (not them, of course, within the safety of the Kremlin walls), but this is not Russia of 1941. It has in absolute terms a much smaller population and an economy that was highly integrated with West before the sanctions. I think your fears of nuclear escalation are unrealistic, particularly when you consider that the Russian general staff has some evidence to believe that US intelligence may have penetrated their military communications. They can never be sure what the US will do if any order is given. As they say in Russian, fear has big eyes. This war is an absolute tragedy for Russia, and that will continue, perhaps, for at least a generation, if not longer.
Mere interception does not give one a first-strike capability, which is defined by the absence of the adversary having a second-strike capability against oneself. Russia may have considerably more stamina than people are thinking. It is one of only two states in the international system that can survive in autarchy. The other being the United States.
Re cutting oil supplies - I think crux of the issue is that O&G markets are so tight now, because of Energy Transition policies causing under-investment, so that Russia can afford to cut only a portion of its O&G supplies, and still cause very high energy prices. Case in point: Gazprom production is down only 10-15% this year, volumes shipped to EU are down over 60%, and gas price is 3-4x of what it was in January. Same logic applies to oil supplies
Perhaps, but $200 oil is unlikely, particularly since we’re headed into a recession. And the entire transportation system for natural gas is to Europe, except for one pipeline under construction to China, which won’t be operational for another 2 years. That system will soon become a stranded asset with little value. This war is a catastrophe for the Russian oil sector.
Well, may be not $200 - but look what happened during Arab Embargo - energy prices were VERY HIGH despite ongoing economic recession in US and Europe.
Re 'catastrophe for Ru O&G': same can be said for EU/German industrial complex: what happens to EU industrial companies where energy used to be 1% of COGS and now will be 6%, add general 8% inflation for the rest of costs. EBIT margin shrinks from 10% to close to zero, if not negative territory. This becomes new normality structurally, not a temporary effect like covid that can be easily subsidized. What happens when these companies start firing people during recession in EU? Entire EU industrial base is a stranded asset as they just lost their competitive advantage.
As for Ru O&G - clearly for now it's not a problem: Gazprom made more money in 1H22 than in 2021 entire year, paying record high dividends; same for ROSN (all public data btw) - as long as energy markets are tight, they can afford to reduce supplies and be more than compensated via higher price.
I am unclear about your assessment of the SMO to date.
Are you assuming that Ukraine is currently faring quite well against Russia?
As far as I can tell, Ukraine is faring disastrously. The latest 'offensive,' over open, unoccupied country, cost them 6,000 casualties, 90% from artillery, at a near-zero cost to Russia.
If my assumption is correct, Ukraine's military is one more victory away from defeat–a fact which Putin must know very well.
He also knows that the temperature in the Carpathians yesterday was three degrees below freezing and snow was falling fast. And that 90% of Europe's gas reserves are unrecoverable without the help of–you guessed it–Russian gas.
The signal-to-noise ratio on war reporting is very low because of Western information dominance. So, I take everything with a lot of salt. I'm expecting either a counter offensive in the south by Russia, or general mobilization. If the former happens, you'd be closer to the mark. If the latter, Chinese concerns would be vindicated. Either way, this is very far from over.
I'm not sure Russia can mount a strong counter offensive. Doesn't this contradict your observation that Russia doesn't have enough troops? They seem to have no artillery advantage due to himmars not enough infantry and probably not enough good infantry support for their tanks. If they launch a counterattack it will peter out.
On the other hand Russia could easily prove very hard to dislodge from Ukraine so the war is likely to drag on for a long time or even stalemate completely.
I have no idea about a general mobilization.
Russia has plenty of troops and artillery that it has not brought to bear. Not to mention air superiority.
Your statement about Ukrainian losses is on par with former army Colonel and senior Pentagon advisor Douglas Macgregor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cd_8MqPC3o
1. Ukraine was about to assault the Donbass republics.
2. Take away Russia, and Ukraine would be a pariah state.
I do not agree with you that Russia can survive as an autarky. Last time they functioned as one they had captive markets in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and a population of 300 million. Auto production is down 90%. Airline industry is collapsing do to lack of spare parts. 70% of semiconductors used in military weapons came from the US.
I hear people in the west talking about tactical nukes, or a small scale nuclear exchange, which is of course ludicrous. If anyone launches any type of nuclear weapon, it will rapidly spiral out of control, and end life on earth, or at least life as we know it.
The west needs to GTFO of everyone else's affairs. Period.
"Putin has already deployed his gas weapon to tremendous effect". Putin and Russia has done nothing of sorts. All the economic pain endured by the world now, and especially in Europe is directly caused by the sanctions imposed by EU and US on Russian economy. And the Russian grain and fertilizer might not be sanctioned, but if Russia tries to export said grain and fertilizer outside EU/US, then the ships and insurance companies are sanctions/ forbidden of such commerce.
> As a show of force, Putin massed forces on the border. According to Kyiv, Moscow had massed some 100,000 troops on the border. The divisions were soon ordered back, however, for reasons that are not entirely clear — perhaps because Biden agreed to meet with Putin.
This account makes it sound like "Putin" just decided to make a show of force and then changed his mind. At the time there were NATO fleet exercises in Black Sea, in coordination with the massing of Ukrainian units at the borders of the breakaway Donbass provinces.
https://www.nbcnews.com/video/russian-military-video-purports-to-show-british-navy-ship-forced-away-from-crimea-115348037984
The show of force came after legislation was passed in Ukraine in early 2021 to retake control of Crimea and Donbas by any means followed by mobilization of Ukrainian Army on the eastern front.... Russian mobilization was an effect of Ukrainian actions.
I think your analysis makes a lot of great points, but as a student of the Russian economy and military for over 50 years, I disagree with your argument that the Russian economy can withhold its oil from global markets and continue to function or declare a national mobilization and deliver an effective military force to the Ukraine without massive internal political and economic repercussions. This war has effected a global sea change in the perception of risk in all commercial relations with Russia (and derivatively with China), regardless of any change in US policy or the outcome of the war. The Russian elite like to boast about the superior ability of Russians to endure hardship versus their softer peers in the West (not them, of course, within the safety of the Kremlin walls), but this is not Russia of 1941. It has in absolute terms a much smaller population and an economy that was highly integrated with West before the sanctions. I think your fears of nuclear escalation are unrealistic, particularly when you consider that the Russian general staff has some evidence to believe that US intelligence may have penetrated their military communications. They can never be sure what the US will do if any order is given. As they say in Russian, fear has big eyes. This war is an absolute tragedy for Russia, and that will continue, perhaps, for at least a generation, if not longer.
Mere interception does not give one a first-strike capability, which is defined by the absence of the adversary having a second-strike capability against oneself. Russia may have considerably more stamina than people are thinking. It is one of only two states in the international system that can survive in autarchy. The other being the United States.
I would really want to see the US survive in an autarchy... Going cold turkey would be far more devastating for the US than it is for Russia.
Re cutting oil supplies - I think crux of the issue is that O&G markets are so tight now, because of Energy Transition policies causing under-investment, so that Russia can afford to cut only a portion of its O&G supplies, and still cause very high energy prices. Case in point: Gazprom production is down only 10-15% this year, volumes shipped to EU are down over 60%, and gas price is 3-4x of what it was in January. Same logic applies to oil supplies
Perhaps, but $200 oil is unlikely, particularly since we’re headed into a recession. And the entire transportation system for natural gas is to Europe, except for one pipeline under construction to China, which won’t be operational for another 2 years. That system will soon become a stranded asset with little value. This war is a catastrophe for the Russian oil sector.
Well, may be not $200 - but look what happened during Arab Embargo - energy prices were VERY HIGH despite ongoing economic recession in US and Europe.
Re 'catastrophe for Ru O&G': same can be said for EU/German industrial complex: what happens to EU industrial companies where energy used to be 1% of COGS and now will be 6%, add general 8% inflation for the rest of costs. EBIT margin shrinks from 10% to close to zero, if not negative territory. This becomes new normality structurally, not a temporary effect like covid that can be easily subsidized. What happens when these companies start firing people during recession in EU? Entire EU industrial base is a stranded asset as they just lost their competitive advantage.
As for Ru O&G - clearly for now it's not a problem: Gazprom made more money in 1H22 than in 2021 entire year, paying record high dividends; same for ROSN (all public data btw) - as long as energy markets are tight, they can afford to reduce supplies and be more than compensated via higher price.
Power of Siberia is operating for quite some time, with another line now to be build through Mongolia.