I am unclear about your assessment of the SMO to date.
Are you assuming that Ukraine is currently faring quite well against Russia?
As far as I can tell, Ukraine is faring disastrously. The latest 'offensive,' over open, unoccupied country, cost them 6,000 casualties, 90% from artillery, at a near-zero cost to Russia.
If my assumption is correct, Ukraine's military is one more victory away from defeat–a fact which Putin must know very well.
He also knows that the temperature in the Carpathians yesterday was three degrees below freezing and snow was falling fast. And that 90% of Europe's gas reserves are unrecoverable without the help of–you guessed it–Russian gas.
I do not agree with you that Russia can survive as an autarky. Last time they functioned as one they had captive markets in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and a population of 300 million. Auto production is down 90%. Airline industry is collapsing do to lack of spare parts. 70% of semiconductors used in military weapons came from the US.
I hear people in the west talking about tactical nukes, or a small scale nuclear exchange, which is of course ludicrous. If anyone launches any type of nuclear weapon, it will rapidly spiral out of control, and end life on earth, or at least life as we know it.
The west needs to GTFO of everyone else's affairs. Period.
"Putin has already deployed his gas weapon to tremendous effect". Putin and Russia has done nothing of sorts. All the economic pain endured by the world now, and especially in Europe is directly caused by the sanctions imposed by EU and US on Russian economy. And the Russian grain and fertilizer might not be sanctioned, but if Russia tries to export said grain and fertilizer outside EU/US, then the ships and insurance companies are sanctions/ forbidden of such commerce.
> As a show of force, Putin massed forces on the border. According to Kyiv, Moscow had massed some 100,000 troops on the border. The divisions were soon ordered back, however, for reasons that are not entirely clear — perhaps because Biden agreed to meet with Putin.
This account makes it sound like "Putin" just decided to make a show of force and then changed his mind. At the time there were NATO fleet exercises in Black Sea, in coordination with the massing of Ukrainian units at the borders of the breakaway Donbass provinces.
I think your analysis makes a lot of great points, but as a student of the Russian economy and military for over 50 years, I disagree with your argument that the Russian economy can withhold its oil from global markets and continue to function or declare a national mobilization and deliver an effective military force to the Ukraine without massive internal political and economic repercussions. This war has effected a global sea change in the perception of risk in all commercial relations with Russia (and derivatively with China), regardless of any change in US policy or the outcome of the war. The Russian elite like to boast about the superior ability of Russians to endure hardship versus their softer peers in the West (not them, of course, within the safety of the Kremlin walls), but this is not Russia of 1941. It has in absolute terms a much smaller population and an economy that was highly integrated with West before the sanctions. I think your fears of nuclear escalation are unrealistic, particularly when you consider that the Russian general staff has some evidence to believe that US intelligence may have penetrated their military communications. They can never be sure what the US will do if any order is given. As they say in Russian, fear has big eyes. This war is an absolute tragedy for Russia, and that will continue, perhaps, for at least a generation, if not longer.
I am unclear about your assessment of the SMO to date.
Are you assuming that Ukraine is currently faring quite well against Russia?
As far as I can tell, Ukraine is faring disastrously. The latest 'offensive,' over open, unoccupied country, cost them 6,000 casualties, 90% from artillery, at a near-zero cost to Russia.
If my assumption is correct, Ukraine's military is one more victory away from defeat–a fact which Putin must know very well.
He also knows that the temperature in the Carpathians yesterday was three degrees below freezing and snow was falling fast. And that 90% of Europe's gas reserves are unrecoverable without the help of–you guessed it–Russian gas.
1. Ukraine was about to assault the Donbass republics.
2. Take away Russia, and Ukraine would be a pariah state.
I do not agree with you that Russia can survive as an autarky. Last time they functioned as one they had captive markets in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and a population of 300 million. Auto production is down 90%. Airline industry is collapsing do to lack of spare parts. 70% of semiconductors used in military weapons came from the US.
I hear people in the west talking about tactical nukes, or a small scale nuclear exchange, which is of course ludicrous. If anyone launches any type of nuclear weapon, it will rapidly spiral out of control, and end life on earth, or at least life as we know it.
The west needs to GTFO of everyone else's affairs. Period.
"Putin has already deployed his gas weapon to tremendous effect". Putin and Russia has done nothing of sorts. All the economic pain endured by the world now, and especially in Europe is directly caused by the sanctions imposed by EU and US on Russian economy. And the Russian grain and fertilizer might not be sanctioned, but if Russia tries to export said grain and fertilizer outside EU/US, then the ships and insurance companies are sanctions/ forbidden of such commerce.
> As a show of force, Putin massed forces on the border. According to Kyiv, Moscow had massed some 100,000 troops on the border. The divisions were soon ordered back, however, for reasons that are not entirely clear — perhaps because Biden agreed to meet with Putin.
This account makes it sound like "Putin" just decided to make a show of force and then changed his mind. At the time there were NATO fleet exercises in Black Sea, in coordination with the massing of Ukrainian units at the borders of the breakaway Donbass provinces.
https://www.nbcnews.com/video/russian-military-video-purports-to-show-british-navy-ship-forced-away-from-crimea-115348037984
I think your analysis makes a lot of great points, but as a student of the Russian economy and military for over 50 years, I disagree with your argument that the Russian economy can withhold its oil from global markets and continue to function or declare a national mobilization and deliver an effective military force to the Ukraine without massive internal political and economic repercussions. This war has effected a global sea change in the perception of risk in all commercial relations with Russia (and derivatively with China), regardless of any change in US policy or the outcome of the war. The Russian elite like to boast about the superior ability of Russians to endure hardship versus their softer peers in the West (not them, of course, within the safety of the Kremlin walls), but this is not Russia of 1941. It has in absolute terms a much smaller population and an economy that was highly integrated with West before the sanctions. I think your fears of nuclear escalation are unrealistic, particularly when you consider that the Russian general staff has some evidence to believe that US intelligence may have penetrated their military communications. They can never be sure what the US will do if any order is given. As they say in Russian, fear has big eyes. This war is an absolute tragedy for Russia, and that will continue, perhaps, for at least a generation, if not longer.